What Is Portfolio Runoff?
Let me explain portfolio runoff to you directly: it happens when a portfolio's fixed-term investment assets decline because the proceeds from maturing securities aren’t reinvested.
Portfolio runoff means assets with a finite term are not replaced as they mature. When the principal invested in a fixed-income security with a set maturity is repaid, you as the investor must decide whether to reinvest it. If you choose not to reinvest the proceeds from matured bonds, your portfolio is in runoff.
Key Takeaways
- Portfolio runoff describes a decline in fixed-term investment assets.
- Portfolio runoff can occur when proceeds from maturing fixed-term securities are not reinvested.
- Investment returns decline over time in a portfolio runoff as the asset base generating returns shrinks.
- Portfolio runoff can allow the Federal Reserve to reduce its balance sheet without selling holdings.
Balance Sheet Runoff
For a bank or lender, portfolio runoff can occur if it can't make new loans quickly enough to replace the repaid ones it made previously. Runoff can also happen when early prepayments are allowed or as defaults occur.
Banks can experience runoff when individuals and businesses withdraw capital to invest in other higher-paying investments, thereby reducing the bank's total capital. In an effort to reduce portfolio runoff, some loans specify prepayment penalties. These provide additional compensation for the lender if the borrower pays off a loan before the end of its term.
Runoff in Investment Portfolios
Fixed-income investments like asset-backed securities (ABS) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) usually have a fixed maturity date. For MBS, it would be based on the term of mortgages bundled to make up the security.
If cash flow from mortgage-backed securities is not reinvested, the income your portfolio generates will decline.
Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Reserve bought Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities in quantitative easing (QE) programs adopted following the 2008 financial crisis.
To start reducing its balance sheet, the Fed doesn't need to sell those securities; it can merely choose not to reinvest some or all of the proceeds as the debt matures and is repaid.
Insurance Portfolio Runoff
Just as a fixed-income investor may choose not to reinvest coupon payments or principal repayments, a reinsurer may choose not to write new policies while waiting for those it previously wrote to expire. Its portfolio would then be in runoff.
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