Understanding the Humped Yield Curve
Let me tell you about the humped yield curve—it's a rare sight in the financial world. When you chart it, you'll see medium-term interest rates peaking higher than both short-term and long-term rates, which points directly to economic uncertainty ahead.
What Is a Humped Yield Curve?
I'm explaining this straightforwardly: a humped yield curve happens when interest rates on medium-term fixed-income securities climb above those for short- and long-term ones. If you expect short-term rates to rise and then drop, that's when this hump forms. You might hear it called a bell-shaped curve, and it's not common.
Key Takeaways
- A humped yield curve occurs when medium-term interest rates are higher than both short- and long-term rates.
- A humped curve is uncommon, but may form as the result of a negative butterfly, or a non-parallel shift in the yield curve where long and short-term yields fall more than intermediate one.
- Most often yield curves feature the lowest rates in the short-term, steadily rising over time; while an inverted yield curve describes the opposite. A humped curve is instead bell-shaped.
Humped Yield Curves Explained
The yield curve, or term structure of interest rates, is a graph plotting yields of similar-quality bonds against their maturities from 3 months to 30 years. It gives you a quick view of yields across short-, medium-, and long-term bonds. The short end depends on Federal Reserve policy expectations—it rises if rate hikes are coming and falls with expected cuts. The long end factors in inflation outlook, investor supply and demand, economic growth, and big trades by institutional investors.
This curve's shape tells you about future interest rate expectations and potential changes in economic activity. It can vary, and one variation is the humped shape. When intermediate-term bond yields top both short- and long-term ones, you get that hump. At shorter maturities, the slope is positive, then it turns negative for longer ones, creating a bell shape. In such a market, bonds maturing in 1 to 10 years might offer higher rates than those under 1 year or over 10 years.
Humped vs. Regular Yield Curves
Compare this to a regular yield curve, where you get higher yields for longer-term bonds to compensate for the risks. A humped curve doesn't do that—it fails to reward holding longer-term debt.
Take an example: if a 7-year Treasury note yields more than a 1-year bill and a 20-year bond, you'd see investors rushing to those mid-term notes, pushing prices up and rates down. The long-term bond, less competitive, gets avoided, dropping its price and raising its yield eventually.
Types of Humps
You don't see humped yield curves often, but when you do, they're signaling upcoming uncertainty or volatility in the economy. A bell-shaped curve shows investor doubts about economic policies or conditions, or it might mark a shift from normal to inverted curves or vice versa. Don't mix this up with an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates exceed long-term ones, hinting at expected economic slowdown, lower inflation, and falling rates overall.
If short- and long-term rates drop more sharply than intermediate ones, you get a humped curve called a negative butterfly. The name comes from likening the intermediate sector to a butterfly's body, with short and long sectors as the wings.
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