What Is a Kondratieff Wave?
Let me explain what a Kondratieff Wave is. It's named after the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff, and it refers to these long cycles that capitalist economies go through, each lasting roughly 40 to 60 years. You might hear them called 'Kondratiev waves,' 'super-cycles,' 'K-waves,' 'surges,' or 'long waves.'
Key Takeaways
Here's what you need to know right away. A Kondratieff Wave—also known as super-cycles, K-waves, surges, and long waves—describes these 40- to 60-year cycles in capitalist economies. It's a long-term economic cycle marked by evolution and self-correction, triggered by technological innovation that leads to extended prosperity. Keep in mind that Kondratieff Waves are part of 'heterodox economics,' which means they don't fit into the mainstream, orthodox economic theories most economists accept. This theory was outright rejected in Kondratieff's home country.
Understanding Kondratieff Waves
A Kondratieff Wave is essentially a long-term economic cycle that stems from technological innovation, creating a prolonged period of prosperity. This idea comes from Nikolai D. Kondratieff (sometimes spelled 'Kondratiev'), an economist from communist Russia who observed long-term cycles in agricultural commodity and copper prices. He argued that these cycles include phases of evolution and self-correction.
Economists have pinpointed several Kondratieff Waves starting from the 18th century. The first one came from the steam engine invention and lasted from 1780 to 1830. The second was driven by the steel industry and railroads, running from 1830 to 1880. The third involved electrification and chemical industry innovations, from 1880 to 1930. The fourth was powered by automobiles and petrochemicals, from 1930 to 1970. The fifth started in 1970 with information technology and continues today, though some think we're entering a sixth wave focused on biotechnology and healthcare.
On top of that, each cycle breaks down into four sub-cycles or phases, often compared to seasons. In spring, you see rising productivity and inflation, marking an economic boom. Summer brings increased affluence, which shifts attitudes toward work and slows growth. Autumn features stagnating conditions leading to a deflationary spiral and isolationist policies that hinder growth further. Winter hits with a severe depression that disrupts society's social fabric, widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.
Nikolai D. Kondratieff's Fate
Kondratieff Waves fall under 'heterodox economics' because they don't align with the orthodox theories most economists follow. In Kondratieff's Russia, his ideas were not welcome at all. They clashed with communist officials, especially Josef Stalin, since they implied capitalist nations weren't doomed to collapse but instead went through natural ups and downs. Because of this, Kondratieff was sent to a Siberian concentration camp and executed by firing squad in 1938.
Correction
Correction as of July 9, 2025: This article has corrected the spelling of Kondratieff, which was previously misspelled.
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