What Is a Melt-Up?
Let me explain what a melt-up is: it's a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.
You need to know that the gains from a melt-up are considered unreliable indications of the market's ultimate direction. Melt-ups often precede meltdowns.
Meltdown Meaning
A meltdown in finance refers to events like a steep decline in stock markets, asset values, corporate losses, and similar issues that batter the economy and lead to losses for investors.
Key Takeaways
- A melt-up is a sudden, persistent rise in the price of a security or market, often due to investor herding.
- Melt-ups are not necessarily indicative of a fundamental shift and may reflect market psychology instead.
- Poor decisions to buy into a melt-up can be avoided by focusing on economic indicators that provide an overall picture of the health of the U.S. economy or on the fundamentals of a stock.
Understanding Melt-Ups and Nuances of Economic Indicators
You should ignore melt-ups and meltdowns and focus on fundamental factors, starting with an understanding of economic indicators. These come as leading indicators and lagging indicators, which investors follow to forecast the stock market's direction and the overall health of the U.S. economy.
Leading indicators are factors that shift before the economy follows a particular pattern. For instance, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a leading indicator that reflects consumer perceptions and attitudes. Are they spending freely? Do they feel like they have less cash? A rise or fall in this index strongly indicates future consumer spending levels, which account for 70% of the economy.
Other leading indicators include the Durable Goods Report (DGR), based on a monthly survey of heavy manufacturers, and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a survey-based indicator that economists use to predict gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Lagging indicators shift only after the economy has begun following a pattern. These are often technical indicators that trail the price movements of their underlying assets. Examples include a moving average crossover and a series of bond defaults.
Melt-Ups and Fundamental Investing
Many investors try to avoid melt-ups and their emotional impact by focusing on company fundamentals when placing bets. Take Warren Buffett, a famous value investor who built his fortune by paying careful attention to companies’ financial statements, even during economic turmoil. He looked at corporate value and price: Was the company on solid financial footing? How experienced and reliable was the management? Was it overpriced or underpriced? These questions help you focus on intrinsic value over hype.
Examples of Melt-Ups
Financial analysts viewed the stock market run-up in early 2010 as a possible melt-up, because unemployment rates stayed high, both residential and commercial real estate values continued to suffer, and retail investors kept pulling money out of stocks.
More examples occurred during the Great Depression, when the stock market rose and fell several times despite a generally weak economy. According to research by wealth managers, stocks fell by more than 80% from 1929 to 1932, but they posted returns of more than 90% in July and August of 1932, and the trend continued over the next six months.
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