Table of Contents
- What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?
- Key Takeaways
- Understanding Inverted Yield Curves
- Indicative Spreads
- Historical Examples of Inverted Yield Curves
- Is This Yield Curve Inverted?
- What Is a Yield Curve?
- What Can Investors Learn From an Inverted Yield Curve?
- Why Is the 10-Year to 2-Year Spread Important?
- The Bottom Line
What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?
Let me explain to you what an inverted yield curve is. It graphically shows yields on similar debt securities across different maturities. Normally, the curve slopes upward, with yields increasing as maturities get longer. But when it's inverted, long-term interest rates drop below short-term ones.
Key Takeaways
You should know that an inverted yield curve is sometimes called a negative yield curve. It's proven itself as a solid indicator of recessions. Essentially, it shows what bond investors expect: a drop in longer-term interest rates.
Understanding Inverted Yield Curves
The yield curve illustrates the borrowing costs for debt securities of varying maturities. Typically, shorter-term securities have lower yields than longer-term ones, so the curve slopes up because longer-term holders take on more risk. We also call this the term structure of interest rates. For instance, the U.S. Treasury puts out daily yields for bills and bonds that you can plot as a curve.
Analysts often simplify this by looking at the spread between two maturities. This helps interpret inversions that happen between some maturities but not others. The catch is there's no consensus on which spread is the best for predicting recessions.
When the curve inverts, it means long-term rates are below short-term ones, signaling that investors are shifting money from short-term to long-term bonds. This points to market pessimism about the near-term economy. In the modern era, such inversions have reliably preceded recessions, and because they're rare, they get a lot of scrutiny from financial participants.
Indicative Spreads
Academic research often examines the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill for recession links. Market folks, though, tend to watch the 10-year and two-year bond spread. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell looks at the difference between the current three-month rate and what derivatives predict for it 18 months out to assess recession risk.
Historical Examples of Inverted Yield Curves
The 10-year to two-year spread has been a dependable recession signal since a false alarm in the mid-1960s, despite some U.S. officials downplaying it over time. In 1998, it briefly inverted after Russia's debt default, but Fed rate cuts prevented a U.S. recession. In 2006, it stayed inverted for much of the year, and long-term Treasuries outperformed stocks in 2007, right before the Great Recession started in December.
On August 28, 2019, the spread went negative briefly, and the U.S. hit a two-month recession in early 2020 due to COVID-19, which wasn't factored into bond prices months earlier. Remember, the inversion doesn't cause recessions; it just reflects investor bets on declining long-term yields during downturns.
Is This Yield Curve Inverted?
At the end of 2022, with inflation surging, the curve inverted again. On December 30, 2022, the 10-year yield was 3.88% and the two-year was 4.41%, giving a 53-point negative spread. As of March 13, 2025, yields were: three-month at 4.34%, two-year at 3.94%, 10-year at 4.27%, and 30-year at 4.59%. So, the key 10-year to two-year spread was positive at 33 points, meaning no inversion there.
What Is a Yield Curve?
A yield curve plots the yields of bonds with the same credit quality but different maturities. The U.S. Treasury one is the most watched.
What Can Investors Learn From an Inverted Yield Curve?
Historically, long-lasting inversions have preceded U.S. recessions. They signal investor expectations of falling long-term rates due to weakening economic performance.
Why Is the 10-Year to 2-Year Spread Important?
Many use this spread as a yield curve stand-in and a solid recession predictor. Some Fed officials say shorter-term maturities give better recession insights.
The Bottom Line
A yield curve that stays inverted for a while seems like a stronger recession signal than a short one, no matter the spread you pick. But recessions are rare, so we don't have tons of data to be sure. As one Fed researcher put it, predicting them is tough—we haven't had many, and we don't fully get their causes, but we keep trying.
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