Table of Contents
- What Is the Black-Scholes Model?
- Key Takeaways
- History of the Black-Scholes Model
- How the Black-Scholes Model Works
- Black-Scholes Assumptions
- The Black-Scholes Model Formula
- Volatility Skew
- Benefits and Limitations of the Black-Scholes Model
- What Does the Black-Scholes Model Do?
- What Are the Inputs for the Black-Scholes Model?
- What Assumptions Does the Black-Scholes Model Make?
- What Are the Limitations of the Black-Scholes Model?
- The Bottom Line
What Is the Black-Scholes Model?
Let me tell you about the Black-Scholes model, also called the Black-Scholes-Merton or BSM model—it's one of the core ideas in modern financial theory for figuring out the fair value of an options contract.
This equation estimates the theoretical price of derivatives based on other investments, factoring in time and various risk elements.
Developed back in 1973, it remains one of the top methods for pricing options today.
Key Takeaways
You should know that the Black-Scholes model goes by Black-Scholes-Merton or BSM, and it's a differential equation commonly used to price options.
It needs five inputs: the option's strike price, the current stock price, time to expiration, risk-free rate, and volatility.
The model is generally accurate but relies on assumptions that can cause predictions to differ from reality.
Remember, the standard version only prices European options, as it doesn't consider early exercise like in American options.
History of the Black-Scholes Model
The model was created in 1973 by Fischer Black, Robert Merton, and Myron Scholes, marking the first widely adopted way to calculate an option's theoretical value using current stock prices, expected dividends, strike price, interest rates, time to expiration, and volatility.
Black and Scholes introduced the equation in their paper 'The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities' in the Journal of Political Economy.
Merton edited it and later published his own piece in The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, expanding on it and naming it the Black-Scholes theory.
In 1997, Scholes and Merton received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for this work on valuing derivatives; Black had died two years prior and couldn't be awarded, but the committee recognized his contribution.
How the Black-Scholes Model Works
The model assumes that prices of instruments like stocks or futures follow a lognormal distribution with a random walk, constant drift, and volatility, using this to derive the price of a European call option.
It requires six variables: volatility, underlying asset price, option strike price, time to expiration, risk-free interest rate, and option type (call or put).
With these, options sellers can theoretically set rational prices.
Applied to stock options, it accounts for stock price variation, time value of money, strike price, and expiry time.
Note that it's often compared to the binomial model or Monte Carlo simulations.
Black-Scholes Assumptions
The model assumes no dividends during the option's life, random and unpredictable markets, no transaction costs, known and constant risk-free rate and volatility, normally distributed returns, and that it's a European option exercisable only at expiration.
The original version ignored dividends, but adaptations use the ex-dividend value of the stock.
For American options that can be exercised early, market makers modify it, or use alternatives like binomial or trinomial models, or the Bjerksund-Stensland model.
The Black-Scholes Model Formula
The math in the formula can seem complex, but you don't need to master it to apply Black-Scholes in your trading strategies.
Traders use online calculators and platform tools that handle the calculations and provide pricing values.
The call option formula multiplies the stock price by the cumulative standard normal probability distribution, then subtracts the NPV of the strike price times the cumulative standard normal distribution.
It's expressed as C = S N(d1) - K e^{-rt} N(d2), where d1 and d2 are calculated based on the inputs, with C as call price, S as stock price, K as strike, r as risk-free rate, t as time to maturity, and N as normal distribution.
Volatility Skew
Black-Scholes assumes lognormal stock prices, meaning they can't go negative.
But real asset prices often show right skewness and fat tails, with high-risk drops happening more than a normal distribution suggests.
The model implies similar volatilities across strike prices, but since the 1987 crash, at-the-money options have lower implied volatilities than out-of-the-money ones, indicating market pricing for downside moves.
This creates a volatility skew or smile on graphs of implied volatilities for same-expiration options.
As a result, the model isn't great for calculating implied volatility.
Benefits and Limitations of the Black-Scholes Model
On the benefits side, it gives a stable framework with a defined method for pricing, helps you mitigate risk by understanding exposure, lets you build portfolios based on your preferences, and streamlines calculations and reporting.
For limitations, it doesn't cover all option types, especially American ones, lacks flexibility with future cash flows, assumes constant volatility which isn't always true, and relies on other assumptions that may not hold, leading to inaccurate prices.
What Does the Black-Scholes Model Do?
This model was the first widely used for option pricing, calculating a European call option's price using known variables like current price, maturity, and strike, under assumptions about asset behavior.
It subtracts the NPV of the strike times the cumulative standard normal from the stock price times the cumulative standard normal probability.
What Are the Inputs for the Black-Scholes Model?
The equation uses volatility, underlying price, strike, time to expiration, risk-free rate, and option type, allowing sellers to set rational prices.
What Assumptions Does the Black-Scholes Model Make?
It assumes European-style options exercisable only at expiration, no dividends, random market walks, no transaction costs, constant risk-free rate and volatility, and log-normal asset prices.
What Are the Limitations of the Black-Scholes Model?
It's limited to European options, ignores early exercise for American ones, assumes constant dividends and volatility, and overlooks taxes, commissions, or trading costs, which can cause real-world deviations.
The Bottom Line
In essence, the Black-Scholes model is a mathematical tool for finding the fair or theoretical value of assets like options, considering current price, type, strike, time to expiration, risk-free rate, and volatility.
It has deeply influenced finance, spawning derivatives like futures, swaps, and options.
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