What Is the Reserve-Replacement Ratio?
Let me explain the reserve-replacement ratio, or RRR as it's often called. It's simply the amount of oil added to a company's reserves divided by the amount extracted for production. You use this metric to judge how well an oil company is operating, and investors rely on it for that purpose.
Key Takeaways
You need to know that the RRR is the oil added to reserves divided by what's extracted, serving as a way for investors to assess performance. If it's at 100%, the company can keep up current production. Remember, a high RRR from organic means is preferable to one from buying proved reserves.
Understanding the Reserve-Replacement Ratio
The RRR measures proved reserves added to a company's base in a year, compared to the oil and gas produced. Conventional wisdom says that with stable demand, you need at least 100% to sustain production. Anything over 100% points to growth room, while under 100% signals potential oil shortages ahead.
This ratio gets calculated nationally or globally too, often for long-term forecasting and macro analysis. But national reserve numbers can be manipulated, so take them with caution. Simplistic views of RRR have sparked unnecessary panic about oil running out since the 1800s. From 1980 to 2020, North America's proved reserves to production ratio ranged from 19 to 47 years, but history shows these ignored future reserve growth, proving them wrong.
Pairing Reserve-Replacement Ratio With Other Data
While RRR is a useful indicator for gauging an oil company's health, it doesn't give the full story alone. You should look at it alongside other metrics, such as the reserve-life index, enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow ratio, enterprise value to daily production ratio, and total CAPEX spending.
CAPEX is what a company spends to find and develop new reserves. This can change over time due to new tech, supply-demand shifts, or oil price swings. Again, a high RRR from organic efforts beats one from purchasing reserves.
Important Note
Since oil production estimates vary yearly, calculate the RRR over multiple years for accurate long-term views.
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