Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Market Context
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from exchange-traded funds amid fears of a broader crypto market downturn. None of the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows that day. BlackRock's IBIT led with nearly $158 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $104 million and Grayscale's GBTC at over $59 million. This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, after $276 million on February 11. Institutional investors are pulling back as Bitcoin struggles around the $65,450-$67,500 range, with prices fluctuating near $66,800 on February 13 morning.
$2.5 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry
The ETF outflows coincided with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on February 13, where approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value expired, primarily on Deribit. The put/call ratio stood at 0.72, with maximum pain near $74,000. Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and maximum pain at $2,100. These maximum pain points, well above spot levels, likely drove downward pressure as market makers hedged delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.
February 13 Options Expiration Data: 38,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.71, maximum pain point at $74,000, and notional value of $2.5 billion. 215,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, maximum pain point at $2,100, and notional value of $410…
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Analyst Views
Crypto analysts indicate the ETF outflows and market weakness hinder bullish momentum, with sentiment skewed bearish. Greeks.live analysts noted that options expiry accounted for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion, amid declining implied volatility—BTC at 50% and ETH at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak. The most violent leg of the downturn may be behind, potentially allowing a relief rally above $70,000 if sentiment improves. However, ongoing ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could cap upside. Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin retesting $50,000 before rising to $100,000 by end of 2026, citing ETF outflows, macro pressures, and risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts. BTC tested $60,000 support this month, and continued outflows signal aggressive downside protection, with $50,000 as a potential next target.
$410M outflows in a single day. US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged their 4th straight week of bleeding. AUM down from $170B (Oct '25 peak) to ~ $80B. At the same time, Standard Chartered cuts 2026 BTC target from $150K → $100K and warns of a possible $50K flush first. ETH ETFs…
