TL;DR
- BTC briefly hit $79K late Sunday before easing to around $77,873 on Monday.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $820M+ inflows last week, the fourth consecutive week of gains.
- Geopolitical tensions over US-Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are curbing short-term upside.
Bitcoin Eases After Weekly Gains
Bitcoin trades marginally lower on Monday around $77,873, following its fourth straight weekly advance since late March. The cryptocurrency touched $79K during late Sunday trading but faced selling pressure as it nears the pivotal $80,000 resistance. While the pullback is mild, the overall bullish framework holds firm, driven by consistent institutional accumulation. This resilience underscores Bitcoin's ability to weather short-term volatility amid broader market uncertainties.
Institutional Flows Provide Solid Backing
Institutional interest continues to anchor Bitcoin's price action. Data from SoSoValue indicates spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of $823.7 million last week, building on $996.38 million the prior week. This streak of four positive weeks highlights deepening commitment from large investors, which has propelled BTC through key technical hurdles. Should these inflows maintain or intensify, they could propel Bitcoin toward fresh highs in the coming sessions.
Fundamentals are supportive, yet macroeconomic headwinds persist. Escalating US-Iran tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have injected caution into risk assets. Iran proposed reopening the strait and extending a ceasefire for longer-term talks, but US President Donald Trump deemed it inadequate, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian refused pressure-driven negotiations. This impasse has cooled investor enthusiasm, stalling Bitcoin's recent surge.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Bias Holds Despite Resistance
On the BTC/USD 4-hour chart, structure leans bullish even after rejection near $80,000. Last week's 6% rise cleared the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,490, a former resistance now flipped to support. A push higher could retest $80,000, eyeing the 200-week EMA around $82,488 for extension.
Indicators align with upside potential. The RSI at 54 on the 4-hour frame stays above neutral, easing bearish momentum. MACD reflects a bullish crossover since mid-April, backed by an expanding histogram that signals gathering strength.
Upside hurdles include $78,962 (50% retracement), then the psychological $80,000 barrier. Clearing this opens paths to $83,437 (61.8% retracement) and $84,410. Downside, initial support at $75,680 leads to the 100-day EMA at $75,619 and 38.2% retracement at $74,487. Deeper corrections might probe the 50-day EMA near $73,363, with further floors at $68,950, channel low around $63,033, and major support at $60,000.
Key Price Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $78,962, $80,000, $82,488 (200-week EMA)
- Support: $75,680, $75,619 (100-day EMA), $74,487 (38.2% Fib)
