Suspicious Bets Surge Before Strikes
A digital gambler called Magamyman won $600,000 on a US military strike against Iranian leadership. Millions poured into prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi amid US strikes on Iran and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death. Blockchain firm Bubblemaps pinpointed six suspected insiders who collectively gained $1.2 million just before conflict erupted.
Market Volumes and Platform Responses
Khamenei outcome trades exceeded $55 million on Kalshi and $58 million on Polymarket. Kalshi faced heat after voiding some trades under a death carveout rule, settling Yes contracts at last traded prices before official confirmation and refunding fees. No traders lost principal, but rules drew complaints over prominence.
As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market... No trader lost money on this market. While the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, traders vocalized they were not prominent enough. We learned a lot from this market. We are updating how we present similar markets so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade.
Insider Trading Alarms
Such platforms risk national security and enable insider trading by officials. Senator Adam Schiff labeled war and death bets immoral, urging CFTC action. Kalshi previously suspended users, including a MrBeast employee, for nonpublic info trades.
Gambling on war and death doesn’t just present national security risks, it also raises serious concerns about potential insider trading—presenting unscrupulous government officials with a chance to profit off the new war in Iran. These contracts are immoral. [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] can and must ban them.
