What Is an Overheated Economy?
Let me explain what an overheated economy really means. It's when the economy has gone through a long stretch of strong growth and activity, which boosts consumer wealth and triggers high inflation.
Key Takeaways
- An overheating economy expands at a rate that's not sustainable over the long term.
- The primary indicators are increasing inflation rates and unemployment that's lower than the economy's typical level.
- Causes can include external shocks or asset bubbles that drive the overheating.
Understanding an Overheated Economy
You need to grasp that a sharp price increase leads to inefficient supply as producers ramp up output to chase high wealth levels, creating excess capacity. These issues, along with inflation, will slow growth and often signal an upcoming recession.
In simple terms, I'm telling you an overheated economy grows too fast to sustain. Watch for two key signs: inflation climbing and unemployment dipping below normal.
Rising Rates of Inflation
Rising inflation is usually the first indicator that things are overheating. Governments and central banks respond by hiking interest rates to cut back on spending and borrowing. But these hikes can arrive too late since inflation lags, and policy changes take time to work.
Take the period from June 2004 to June 2006: the Federal Reserve raised rates 17 times to cool the U.S. economy. Yet by 2008, inflation hit 5.6%, a peak, followed by a deep recession where inflation dropped below zero in months.
Abnormally High Employment Rates
The other sign is unemployment below a country's normal rate. Full employment sounds positive, but it drives inflation higher with everyone working at peak productivity and spending freely.
Since World War II, unemployment has often fallen below 5% just before recessions, including the buildup to the Great Recession.
Other Characteristics
You'll also see unusually high consumer confidence that flips sharply in overheated economies.
Causes of an Overheating Economy
The signs I mentioned—inflation and low unemployment—are causes too. Add in asset bubbles and external shocks, like the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s, which spiked import costs and led to recessions.
Asset bubbles involve unsustainable price surges in assets, signaling overheating. The dotcom bubble burst in 2001 caused a recession, and the 2008 real estate mortgage bubble triggered a global financial crisis with lasting effects.
Examples of an Overheating Economy
Look at the Great Recession in the late 2000s—it followed clear overheating. Unemployment dropped steadily to 4.6% in 2007, below normal. Interest rates peaked at 5.25% in 2006 under new Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, just before the crisis, with inflation at 4.3%.
The bursting real estate bubble in 2007 disrupted the entire financial system. Government spending shifted too: surpluses under Clinton turned to deficits with Bush's tax cuts. The CBO projected a $368 billion deficit in 2005, followed by $295 billion in 2006. These were classic signs of overheating leading to recession.
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