Midnight Deadline Looms with Bigger Refunds Ahead
Americans face a midnight deadline to file their 2025 tax returns, but the news is positive for most: refunds awaiting the majority are larger on average than last year. Taxpayers in select states are seeing even higher payouts, as detailed in a new report from Upgraded Points analyzing IRS data across geographic areas and income levels.
The analysis projects an estimated national average refund of $3,571 for 2026 filings, exceeding the previous high of $3,252 set in 2022. While 72.9% of taxpayers will receive refunds—down from 77.1% in 2021—the bigger checks stem from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This legislation extended expiring tax policies and introduced relief measures targeting income from tips and overtime, Social Security benefits, and deductions like auto loan interest for new U.S.-made vehicles.
State Variations in Refund Amounts
These policy shifts apply nationwide, yet IRS data reveals stark differences by state. Residents in some areas are cashing larger refund checks than others, influenced by local economic factors and filing patterns. Florida emerges as the clear leader, with an inflation-adjusted average refund of $4,433 across more than 11.1 million federal returns filed. Notably, 67.1% of these yielded refunds.
Texas ranks second at $4,344 average from 13.6 million returns, where 71.3% of filers got money back. Mountain West states follow closely: Wyoming at $4,282 (68.8% refund rate from 280,750 returns), Nevada at $4,193 (69.6% from 1.6 million), and Louisiana rounding out the top five with $4,117 (73% refund rate from nearly 2 million returns)—the third-highest rate nationally.
Top Five States by Average Tax Refund
- Florida: $4,433 (67.1% refund rate, 11.1M+ returns)
- Texas: $4,344 (71.3% refund rate, 13.6M returns)
- Wyoming: $4,282 (68.8% refund rate, 280,750 returns)
- Nevada: $4,193 (69.6% refund rate, 1.6M returns)
- Louisiana: $4,117 (73% refund rate, ~2M returns)
While Tax Day isn't usually a day for celebration, Americans can rejoice knowing they will likely receive a larger tax return or owe less than in years past. I am proud to have supported the Working Families Tax Cut Package, the largest tax cut in history for working Americans. On average, Floridians will receive the largest average federal tax refunds in the country, keeping hard-earned dollars in the pockets of workers, families and businesses.
County-Level Extremes in Wealthy Areas
Drilling down to counties uncovers even more dramatic highs, particularly in affluent enclaves. Wyoming's Teton County, encompassing Jackson, posted the nation's largest average at $15,156 from 15,210 returns, though only 51.9% received refunds. Colorado's Pitkin County, home to Aspen, averaged $8,756 across 10,520 returns with a 52% refund rate.
Utah's Summit County, including Park City, saw $8,481 averages from nearly 25,000 returns (55.8% refunded). Florida's Collier County, site of Naples, recorded $7,764 from 214,600 filers (56.6% refund rate). These figures highlight how local wealth and deductions amplify refunds in specific pockets, even as national trends favor broader relief.
Context for Tax Day Filers
Tax Day brings its usual rush, but this year's outlook offers relief amid larger averages and policy-backed breaks. Last-minute filers racing the clock can still expect competitive refunds, especially in high-ranking states. The Upgraded Points report underscores a shift: while fewer overall receive refunds, those who do get more, reflecting targeted tax adjustments.
