No one can be certain where AI is taking us.
From AI Hype to Economic Dread
Last year, investors fretted that AI would tank the economy through insufficient revenues. Today, the concern has inverted: AI's prospective deluge of profits and productivity might instead precipitate collapse. A obscure firm, Citrini Research, ignited this shift with a speculative memo framed as a June 2028 dispatch chronicling the 'global intelligence crisis'—an AI-fueled implosion of financial, economic, and political structures.
In this vision, AI fulfills its proponents' promises initially, driving 1950s-level productivity surges, colossal profits for its proprietors, and substantial GDP expansion. Yet this success spirals into catastrophe by irrevocably cheapening white-collar labor and dismantling entrenched business models, outpacing the broader economy.
The White-Collar Doom Loop
Citrini's core narrative traces a self-reinforcing cycle. AI agents supplant professionals across consulting, software, real estate, finance, law, and beyond—exemplified by Claude agents handling a $180,000 product manager's duties for $200 monthly by late 2026. Firms slash headcounts, channeling savings into further AI enhancements.
Displaced workers curtail spending, depressing blue-collar wages as ex-consultants flood gig markets like Uber. Wealth concentrates among AI elites who exhibit limited marginal consumption, starving consumer demand. Faltering profits prompt more AI investments and layoffs, locking the loop without evident halts.
Micro-Level Disruptions via AI Agents
Complementing the macro tale, Citrini details AI's assault on industry rents through tireless comparison shopping and barrier annihilation. Humans tolerate brand inertia; AI agents scour the web instantaneously. Everyday users delegate flight bookings, apartment hunts, or delivery orders to agents seeking minimal fees.
Entry barriers crumble: a solo developer like 'Bob' erects a DoorDash rival in hours using AI coding tools, undercutting fees for all parties. In an agent ubiquity era, consumers, restaurants, and drivers select the least extractive platforms dynamically, replicating networks overnight and cratering intermediaries like DoorDash, insurers, enterprise software, and brokerages.
Cascading to Financial Crisis
These dynamics strain finance: leveraged positions premised on stable competition and professional solvency unravel. Mortgages waver amid 10% unemployment, S&P 500 plunges, and protests erupt—yet AI labs accrue cash. Credit tightens, recession intensifies.
Markets reacted acutely: the memo ostensibly erased over $200 billion in US equities, with DoorDash shares dropping sharply, an anomaly for speculative fiction.
Objections to Citrini's Plausibility
Unemployment endures near lows despite generative AI's tenure; even exposed fields like software development post gains. Past technologies displaced yet spawned jobs, bounded by policy rather than machinery limits amid infinite human desires.
AI investments cascade through construction and services, sustaining demand. Undercutting incumbents demands trust and operations beyond hasty coding, especially amid scam proliferation. Rent collapses would redistribute toward high-spending consumers, bolstering demand. Governments, flush with AI-tax revenues and pressured by aggrieved elites, would likely intervene via redistribution.
No one can be certain where AI is taking us.
