Key Takeaways
- XLM drops 2% on Thursday as the 100-day EMA blocks its recovery attempt.
- Futures Open Interest holds steady, but declining long-to-short ratio indicates bearish sentiment.
XLM Shifts Bearish as Leverage Traders Lose Faith
Stellar (XLM) continued its slide on Thursday, unable to muster any real upward momentum against the stubborn 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $0.1798. This technical barrier has firmly capped any short-term recovery efforts, solidifying a bearish outlook in the immediate term.
The derivatives market echoes this pessimism. According to Coinglass data, XLM futures Open Interest (OI) sits at an elevated $114.70 million, up from $99.45 million earlier in the week. This rise points to ongoing trader engagement even as price weakens, but the real story lies in positioning.
Bearish bets are piling up. The long-to-short ratio lingers at 0.7632—a figure stuck below 1 since mid-January—showing traders leaning heavily toward shorts and bracing for more declines in XLM.
Technical Forecast: XLM Eyes Drop Below $0.1700
On the 4-hour XLM/USD chart, the structure stays firmly bearish, with sellers back in command for now. The token trades under the pivotal 100-day EMA but clings above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669.
Momentum tools offer a mixed picture. The RSI hovers near 62 on the 4-hour frame, still above neutral, and the MACD line remains over its signal, hinting that buyers haven't surrendered completely.
That said, downside threats loom large. A breach below the 50-day EMA support at $0.1669 could send XLM toward the consolidation zone at $0.1471, a level that has held firm since early February.
For bulls to regain footing, XLM must clear the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 with conviction. A daily close above that could target the 200-day EMA near $0.2101, but current conditions favor bears.
